Market Wrap February 29, 2012

Dow Industrials 12951.61 -53.51 -0.41% S&P 500 1365.66 -6.52 -0.48% Nasdaq Comp. 2966.89 -19.87 -0.67% Russell 2000 810.94 -12.86 -1.56%

NYSE Comp. 8113.45 -58.10 -0.71% Nasdaq 100 2623.10 -10.36 -0.39% Dow Transports 5152.94 -12.25 -0.24% Dow Utilities 451.54 +0.45 +0.10%

View Major Index charts

Internals were negative, with volume a little heavier. Advances/declines were 1 to 2 on the NYSE and 1 to 3 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume 3 to 8 on the NYSE and 1 to 3 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 169/11 on the NYSE and 70/19 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — Homebuilders (+1.21%), Paper (+1.14%), Transport (-0.06%), HMOs (-0.08%), Utilities (-0.15%), REITs (-0.22%), Broker Dealers (-0.33%), Comp. Tech (-0.33%)
Laggards — Gold/Silver (-3.28%), Metals (-2.66%), Network (-2.29%), Commodities (-1.73%), Chemicals (-1.59%), Semis (-1.58%), Retailers (-1.47%), Comp. Hardware (-1.27%)

An extensive visual representation of the day’s winners and losers can be found at Finviz.com.

Treasury Yields — 6-Month : 0.13 %,  2-Year : 0.30 %,  5-Year : 0.87 %,  10-Year : 1.98 %,  30-Year : 3.10 %

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $106.98/barrel,  Gasoline: $3.07/gallon,  Natural Gas: $2.59/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 78.797

Precious Metals — Gold: $1696.10/ounce,  Silver: $34.60/ounce,  Platinum: $1675.00/ounce

BMB Note:  
Bizarre. After a big up day in silver yesterday, both silver and gold got whacked today. In stocks, metals are still looking much less interesting than most other groups — check out the chart of the DJ steel index. Uptrend clearly broken, and now a slide back below the 50-day. PM stocks (as measured by $XAU) haven’t gone anywhere for months.

Market Wrap February 28, 2012

Dow Industrials 13005.12 +23.61 +0.18% S&P 500 1372.18 +4.59 +0.34% Nasdaq Comp. 2986.76 +20.60 +0.69% Russell 2000 823.80 -2.86 -0.35%

NYSE Comp. 8171.60 +28.04 +0.34% Nasdaq 100 2633.46 +26.70 +1.02% Dow Transports 5165.19 -5.89 -0.11% Dow Utilities 451.09 -1.67 -0.37%

View Major Index charts

Internals were mixed, with volume just a bit heavier. Advances/declines were 10 to 9 on the NYSE but 9 to 10 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume 11 to 8 on the NYSE and 5 to 3 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 174/7 on the NYSE and 83/14 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — Airlines (+2.42%), Gold/Silver (+1.96%), Paper (+1.82%), Retailers (+1.70%), Semis (+1.59%), Comp. Tech (+1.05%), Broker Dealers (+0.86%), Internet (+0.63%)
Laggards — REITs (-0.79%), Network (-0.73%), Natural Gas (-0.57%), Insurance (-0.42%), Oil Services (-0.41%), Biotechs (-0.40%), Telecoms (-0.39%), Homebuilders (-0.38%)

An extensive visual representation of the day’s winners and losers can be found at Finviz.com.

Treasury Yields — 6-Month : 0.13 %,  2-Year : 0.29 %,  5-Year : 0.84 %,  10-Year : 1.94 %,  30-Year : 3.07 %

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $106.72/barrel,  Gasoline: $3.04/gallon,  Natural Gas: $2.53/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 78.247

Precious Metals — Gold: $1784.90/ounce,  Silver: $36.90/ounce,  Platinum: $1715.00/ounce

BMB Note:  
It’s tough to get a handle on “the market” when you see the Naz-100 up 1 percent but the Nasdaq A/D line in the red. Some stocks go up, and others don’t. And it’s been like that just about every day lately.

Until Then February 28, 2012

Dan Norcini:

Until we see a breakout to the downside in the bond market, all the talk of an improving economy is just that – TALK. When I see long term interest rates beginning to rise steadily, then I will believe it. Until then, it is just the inevitable result of issuing enormous amounts of liquidity in an environment conducive to nothing more than WILD-EYED hedge fund speculation.

Bad Gas February 28, 2012

Gary Dorsch:

In nine of the last ten US-presidential elections, if the price of gasoline was higher at the end of the incumbent’s term in office, than when it began, the incumbent lost the election. The only exception to this trend was in 2004, when the average price on Election Day was $2.03 per gallon compared to $1.54 four-years earlier. George W. Bush won reelection, but just barely, 51% to 49-percent. Since Obama took office, the average price per gallon had doubled to $3.70 and is 43-cents higher than a year ago. It’s up 23-cents just in the month of February. Most analysts say gasoline prices could climb to $4 a gallon, as US-refiners switch to a more expensive blend of petrol for summer driving.

But regardless of the cause, the president of the United States gets an inordinate share of the blame anytime there is a spike in gasoline prices, dating back to the Carter administration. While the president is punished in the court of public opinion whenever gasoline becomes too expensive, he receives no reward when gasoline prices are relatively low. If a spike in gasoline prices is sustained for an extended period of time, it usually has a ripple effect of fueling broad based inflation, and begins to chip away at the president’s popularity.

—

In the olden days, – before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the financial crisis of 2008, central banks would’ve moved to tighten their monetary policies, and hike interest rates, in a concerted effort, in order to combat the inflationary impact of sharply higher oil prices. But in today’s world of “Quantitative Easing” (QE), a tighter money policy is no longer an option, especially with a US-presidential election, scheduled for Nov 6th. Nowadays, the Fed can only display its hawkish credentials, by fending off demands of the ruling politicians for a third round of QE. That still leaves the Fed looking timid and weak in the eyes of speculators.

—

Luckily for Obama, the Republican candidates haven’t yet recognized the biggest culprit behind the upward surge in crude oil prices – is the Fed’s ultra-easy money policy, – which weakens the US-dollar and encourages risk taking in commodities, precious metals, and equities. The Fed has gotten a free pass. Even the Fed’s biggest critic, Texas Congressman Ron Paul has been silent about the link high gasoline prices and the Fed’s massive expansion of the high octane MZM money supply. Instead, the blame for higher oil prices is shifted to fears that Iran’s leaders might try to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, if the European nations and the US continue to tighten economic sanctions on Iran’s commercial dealings.

Although the Fed is the primary culprit behind the rise in crude oil, other central banks are also responsible for the pain that motorists are feeling at the pump. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) for instance, has increased the supply of yen in the Tokyo money markets, by 30-trillion yen, ($385-billion) over the past three years. In turn, Japanese banks lend yen to speculators at borrowing costs of just 0.10-percent. That encourages “Yen Carry” traders to borrow funds in Japanese yen, and to utilize the cheap money to initiate positions in crude oil and Tokyo gold futures. On Feb 14th, the BoJsurprised the currency markets, by bending to heavy government pressure, and agreed to further inflate its monetary base by an additional ¥20-trillionby year’s end. Once the BoJ’s QE-4 scheme begins to fully blossom, it could single handedly lift crude oil to $135 /barrel.

Market Wrap February 27, 2012

Dow Industrials 12981.51 -1.44 -0.01% S&P 500 1367.59 +1.85 +0.14% Nasdaq Comp. 2966.16 +2.41 +0.08% Russell 2000 826.65 -0.27 -0.03%

NYSE Comp. 8143.64 -8.33 -0.10% Nasdaq 100 2606.76 +2.55 +0.10% Dow Transports 5171.08 +31.94 +0.62% Dow Utilities 452.76 -0.58 -0.13%

View Major Index charts

Internals were mixed, with volume slightly better. Advances/declines were flat on the NYSE but 9 to 10 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume 5 to 4 on the NYSE and 3 to 2 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 137/5 on the NYSE and 96/21 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — Paper (+2.29%), Homebuilders (+1.86%), Banks (+1.34%), Airlines (+0.90%), Retailers (+0.60%), Chemicals (+0.56%), Hospitals (+0.33%), Network (+0.17%)
Laggards — Biotechs (-1.54%), Disk Drives (-1.20%), Metals (-1.15%), Gold/Silver (-0.90%), Comp. Hardware (-0.84%), HMOs (-0.80%), Oil Services (-0.71%), Drugs (-0.62%)

An extensive visual representation of the day’s winners and losers can be found at Finviz.com.

Treasury Yields — 6-Month : 0.14 %,  2-Year : 0.29 %,  5-Year : 0.84 %,  10-Year : 1.92 %,  30-Year : 3.04 %

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $107.64/barrel,  Gasoline: $3.11/gallon,  Natural Gas: $2.46/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 78.547

Precious Metals — Gold: $1767.40/ounce,  Silver: $35.43/ounce,  Platinum: $1703.00/ounce

BMB Note:  
Don’t ask me what’s goin’ on – I have no clue.

Too Big To Jail February 26, 2012

Simon Johnson:

The main motivation behind the administration’s indulgence of serious criminality evidently is fear of the consequences of taking tough action on individual bankers. And maybe officials are right to be afraid, given the massive size of the banks in question relative to the economy. In fact, those banks are bigger now than they were before the crisis, and, as James Kwak and I documented at length in our book 13 Bankers, they are much larger than they were 20 years ago.

Top bankers want to make a lot of money. They also want to stay out of prison. Political leaders can huff and puff as much as they want, but, without a credible threat of poverty and time behind bars, bankers have no reason to comply with the law. For them, it’s all about the trade—and you can be the sucker in public policy as easily as you can be the sucker in an individual loan agreement.

The message to bank executives today is simple: build your bank to be as big as possible—and then keep growing. If you manage to become big enough, you and your employees are not just too big to fail, but also too big to jail.

Link from Instapundit.

What’s Hot, What’s Not February 26, 2012

• Most group charts remain in pretty good shape — aside from the unspectacular metals and utilities, and pullbacks in biotechs and airlines.
• Browse through our starter set of group charts here: set #1 — set #2 — set #3 — set #4.
• For a more detailed breakdown of group movement over various time periods, try the Industry Group Tracker at WSJ Online, the industry group tools at Finviz.com, or the list of Morningstar industry groups at FreeStockCharts.com.

 

Best Performing Industries
Last Week	Last 4 Weeks	Last 8 Weeks
Gold & Silver ($XAU) +3.8%	Disk Drives ($DDX) +12.8%	Disk Drives +25.1%
Oil Services ($OSX) +2.3%	Comp. Hardware ($HWI) +9.7%	Networking ($NWX) +24.3%
Commodities ($CRX) +1.8%	Networking +9.4%	Comp. Hardware +23.8%
Brokers ($XBD) +1.8%	Oil Services +8.5%	Biotech ($BTK) +23.6%
Telecom ($XTC) +1.8%	Brokers +8.3%	Oil Services +20.2%

 

 

Worst Performing Industries
Last Week	Last 4 Weeks	Last 8 Weeks
Airlines ($XAL) -10.0%	Steel ($DJUSST) -4.8%	Utilities ($UTY) -3.2%
Housing ($HGX) -2.8%	Airlines -4.0%	Drugs ($DRG) +0.9%
Transportation ($TRANQ) -2.3%	Metals & Mining (XME) -3.4%	Insurance ($INSR) +4.4%
Banks ($BKX) -2.0%	Gold & Silver -1.3%	REITs ($DJR) +6.2%
Semiconductors ($SOX) -1.9%	REITs -0.4%	Steel +6.6%

Weinstein on FSN February 25, 2012

Famed technician Stan Weinstein (author of the classic “Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets”) is a guest on this week’s Financial Sense Newshour.

Might be worth checking out.

Weekend Sector Scan February 25, 2012

A rather so-so week for the sector SPDRs, with no real significant changes to the charts:

 

 

The numbers as the market refuses to give up any ground:

 

Sector	Symbol	8 Week % Chg.	4 Week % Chg.	1 Week % Chg.	YTD % Chg.
Technology	XLK	+13.2	+7.1	+1.1	+13.2
Financials	XLF	+12.8	+3.8	-0.8	+12.8
Basic Materials	XLB	+12.1	+1.0	+0.5	+12.1
Industrials	XLI	+11.1	+2.8	+0.5	+11.1
Energy	XLE	+10.3	+6.6	+1.8	+10.3
Consumer Discretionary	XLY	+9.8	+3.4	-0.2	+9.8
Health Care	XLV	+4.3	+1.0	-0.1	+4.3
Consumer Staples	XLP	+1.8	+2.6	0.0	+1.8
Utilities	XLU	-2.5	+1.0	+0.1	-2.5

 

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

Market Wrap February 24, 2012

Dow Industrials 12982.95 -1.74 -0.01% S&P 500 1365.74 +2.28 +0.17% Nasdaq Comp. 2963.75 +6.77 +0.23% Russell 2000 826.93 -2.30 -0.28%

NYSE Comp. 8152.03 +15.79 +0.19% Nasdaq 100 2604.21 +9.28 +0.36% Dow Transports 5139.19 -22.46 -0.44% Dow Utilities 453.34 +2.59 +0.57%

View Major Index charts

Internals were mixed on light volume. Advances/declines were 10 to 9 on the NYSE but 4 to 5 on the Nasdaq, with up/down volume just better than flat on the NYSE and 11 to 8 on the Nasdaq. New highs/lows were 178/1 on the NYSE and 112/10 on the Nasdaq.

Leaders — HMOs (+1.60%), Software (+1.05%), Health Care Products (+0.74%), Comp. Tech (+0.55%), Utilities (+0.48%), Broker Dealers (+0.46%), Defense (+0.43%), Internet (+0.33%)
Laggards — Airlines (-1.89%), Homebuilders (-1.40%), Gold/Silver (-1.12%), Banks (-0.89%), Transport (-0.84%), Oil Services (-0.34%), Retailers (-0.31%), Insurance (-0.25%)

An extensive visual representation of the day’s winners and losers can be found at Finviz.com.

Treasury Yields — 6-Month : 0.14 %,  2-Year : 0.30 %,  5-Year : 0.89 %,  10-Year : 1.98 %,  30-Year : 3.10 %

Energy Prices — Crude oil: $109.84/barrel,  Gasoline: $3.15/gallon,  Natural Gas: $2.55/mmBTU

US Dollar Index — 78.319

Precious Metals — Gold: $1774.00/ounce,  Silver: $35.43/ounce,  Platinum: $1712.00/ounce

BMB Note:  
Is it summertime already? Geez, the way volume was today, you’d think so. Sleepy.

Time for another weekend.